G7 blue dots or BRI red spots?
Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for Chinese mainland media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Over the past 20 years, the United States has developed a history of infrastructure destruction in places as diverse as Afghanistan and Iraq. Its record of infrastructure creation, both at home and abroad, is far less impressive. Much of the U.S. national debt has been plowed into the destruction of infrastructure, while much of China's savings has been put into creating infrastructure, both at home and increasingly abroad, with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program.
The U.S. record gives President Joe Biden's and the G7-endorsed "Build Back Better World" (B3W) infrastructure proposal doubtful probity. It appears to be a rebadging of the 2020 Blue Dot network that never really got off the ground. Time will tell if the commitment to the new program is genuine and if it reverses the foreign aid cutbacks made by many of the G7 countries and their partners.
Just prior to the COVID pandemic and on the sidelines of the 2019 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership conference in Bangkok, the U.S. Commerce Secretary announced the United States-led Blue Dot network. Like the B3W proposal, this was promoted as "a multi-stakeholder initiative to bring together governments, the private sector and civil society to promote high-quality, trusted standards for global infrastructure development."
Both proposals promoted a globally recognized evaluation and certification system, coincidentally Western-based, for roads, ports and bridges. The B3W has a broader remit than the original Blue Dot network focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Both will give a Western "seal of approval" to projects. The clear slur contained in this approach is the implication that Belt and Road projects lack trusted (Western) standards.
Biden claims the B3W comes with no strings attached, but this is clearly incorrect. The very language of the announcement shows it is already weighed down by ideological baggage with a firmly attached agenda to "demonstrate our shared values." It is framed as a direct challenge to China's Belt and Road Initiative. If the B3W rollout follows past practice, recipients will be expected to adhere to a series of "values driven" positions before funding is made available.
Some projects will be the B3W equivalent to those in the now-abandoned Blue Dot network proposal. They are not much different from projects already supported by the Asia Investment Bank (ADB), headquartered in Manila and dominated by the United States and Japan. They are also likely to be not much different from projects supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank created by China and run along internationally rigorous funding lines that have poverty alleviation and climate compatibility as core criteria for funding approvals.
The B3W network is a welcome addition to filling the annual US$1.7 trillion Asian infrastructure gap estimated by the ADB Closing the Finance Gap report. That infrastructure gap grows to $4 trillion when Africa and South America are included, so additional funding sources are welcome. Hopefully, this new U.S.-led infrastructure will not be used as a cover to add to the more than 700 current overseas U.S. military bases and installations.
What is not so welcome is the positioning of the B3W as a deliberate counterweight to the BRI. The B3W program has a singularity of purpose. The B3W unabashedly weaponizes essential infrastructure aid. By any measure, these are still Blue Dots.
It is a great pity that B3W is not a cooperative venture that works alongside and with other funding sources. Nor is it as comprehensive as the BRI program it's designed to supplant.
Putting aside hard infrastructure, the BRI program offers three areas of development, each with its own investment opportunities.
The first is trade infrastructure. This includes the regulatory environment, payment systems and protocols, and the application of blockchain certification to everything from logistics chains and customs clearances to digital currencies.
The second is soft infrastructure, which includes trade settlement and banking outside of the dollar-based system. It also includes blockchain, 5G and A.I. development standards, as well as construction standards that will impact project bidders.
The third is capital infrastructure investment. The opening of Chinese capital, bond and derivative markets is part of this. It includes changes to investment and foreign investment regulations that deliver business growth opportunities.
Asia's engagement with the BRI is more persuasive than the limited engagement offered by B3W or any other Blue Dot network substitute. The BRI "Red Spots" offer a path to the future of innovation. The B3W is more of the same – useful but not profoundly different.
On balance, the B3W is a welcome addition to the investment pool available to the poorly developed countries most in need of infrastructure upgrades. It would be even more welcome if it were developed and implemented in the spirit of cooperation rather than competition.
(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)
相关阅读
-
澳洲学者:对美国唯命是从的澳大利亚也难逃“美国优先”大棒砸下
澳大利亚长期讨好美国,希望以此免受“美国优先”政策冲击,一边继续享受美国的安全保护,一边维持正常的澳中、澳美贸易关系。但近期特朗普的一系列离谱言行表明,这种期望可能只是幻想。
-
澳洲学者:美国说什么“强化供应链”,到头来还是为打压中国
近日,“印太经济框架” (IPEF) 下的供应链协议生效。事实上,IPEF是美国对华战略竞争的地缘政治工具,它利用其他成员国寻求供应链多元化的本意,完全以美国自身利益和战略目标为出发点,旨在围堵、遏制中国经济。
-
澳专家:G7广岛峰会嘴上说的都是“秩序”,心里想的都是“霸权”
今年七国集团 (G7) 峰会在日本广岛举办,首要议程仍是维护霸权秩序。广岛是第一个遭到核武器袭击摧毁的城市,这一会议地点和G7不断变化的关注焦点相结合,讽刺意味浓烈。G7的成立主要是为了促进共同的宏观经济倡议,以应对当代经济问题,但现在它正蓄势发起经济战。
-
Australia's adversarial China policy
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for Chinese mainland media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man."
-
China stock market opportunity
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for Chinese mainland media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
-
Australia on a 'mission to provoke imperial resurrection'
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for Chinese mainland media for more than a decade.
-
Australia pines for the past
Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert and special consultant to AxiCorp. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for media for the Chinese mainland for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
-
Essential concepts to embrace and discard to understand China
Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for media for the Chinese mainland for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
免责声明:本网所发所有文章,包括本网原创、编译及转发的第三方稿件及评论,均不构成任何投资建议,交易操作或投资决定请询问专业人士。
热门点击
-
- 【2.20】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 【2.19】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 【2.18】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 【2.17】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 澳储行宣布将利率下调至4.10% 使通胀回到目标水平仍是当务之急
-
- a2 Milk奶粉(ASX :A2M)披露 2025上半财年业绩 首次推出派息分红 下月派发
-
- 上市煤企Whitehaven(ASX:WHC)半年利润大幅增长 维持本财年3500万吨至3950万吨产量指引
-
- a2 Milk奶粉(ASX :A2M)披露 2025上半财年业绩 首次推出派息分红 下月派发
-
- 澳洲工党政府颁布禁令并严打土地囤积 致力改善住房供给和可负担性 澳洲地产外来投资或转向
-
- 【异动股】Neurizon Therapeutics (ASX:NUZ)有望推进“渐冻症”候选药临试 股价应声大涨
-
- 【异动股】Enlitic Inc (ASX:ENL)暴涨47%:与GE医疗合作 利用人工智能改变医学成像迁移
-
- 【2.21】今日财经时讯及重要市场资讯
-
- 四大行均预计澳储行周二降息 今年降息次数预期存分歧
-
- 83亿澳元!西澳超大型铁矿石资产出售 交易双方浮出水面
-
- CBA联邦银行称澳经济增长已放缓 预计最快下周降息 2025年将步入宽松周期