CMC Markets专栏:澳币承压,潜在空头目标何在?

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2015-12-29 08:35:56 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：S.Li 文章类型：转载

由于大宗商品又呈下行态势，澳币继续承压下行。基本面上主要原因有三：一是美联储加息，使得美元有继续走强迹象；二是大宗商品如原油、黄金等价格再次下滑，使得以能源出口为主的澳洲本国货币有继续贬值需求；三是中国进口需求减少给澳大利亚本国经济施压，澳联储有再次降低官方利率的预期。

技术形态上，昨日澳币/美元的日线图上已经呈现出下行的迹象。下放的短期回撤位置可能在0.7145附近。而周线图上显示，澳币对美元很肯能再次挑战前低位置0.6900左右。如果突破此位置继续下行，则长期潜在空头目标可能在0.6120附近。

日线图上看昨日在近期高点0.7280附近收顶部小阴柱，并且这个位置是上行阻力黄金分割线23.6%回荡线附近位置。及有可能在此位置开始回撤下行，下放的第一个潜在的支持位置，可能在上升趋势线下轨附近0.7145左右。

周线图上显示澳币/美元在一个长期的楔形通道整理中运行，如今将有可能再次在楔形通道上轨附近遇阻力下行，结合基本面次货币对有可能突破楔形整理下行的机会较大，如果下破潜在的支撑位置0.7100，则有再次挑战前低0.6900附近的可能。2016年美联储有可能实行4次逐步增加联邦基金利率，如果澳联储受国际形势引向再次降息，则澳币/美元有可能会下探0.6120附近。

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