CMC Markets专栏: 美国增产原油导致油价下滑

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2015-10-22 07:20:05 来源：CMC Markets 编辑：Max 文章类型：转载

美国能源信息管理局昨日公布的原油产量上周增加800万桶，在过去的4周里美国平均原油产量达1940万桶/日，比去年同期增加0.1%。美国得克萨斯原油12月份远期合约价格呈压下滑2.3%，1.09美元，收盘45.30美元/桶。英国布伦特原油10月份合约价格下滑1.68%，下跌86美分。美国股指受其影响均有下滑，美国道琼斯指数下跌0.28%，收盘17168.61点；标普指数500下跌0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.84%。

美国原油价格走势

资料来源：布伦伯格

美国股指一日走势

资料来源：布伦伯格

原油价格自2014年6月份以来持续下滑是一是由于美国加息预期导致美元走强，另一方面是由于生产相对于需求过剩。世界两大产油体系欧派克国家与美国为抢占市场均无因油价下滑而减产，反而为争夺市场份额而以高成本继续增产。当前全球经济形势下，由于中国经济增速下滑，需求减缓，购买力下降，使得原油价格持续呈下行压力。周一中国公布的第三季度国民生产总值GDP首次下破7%的增速，中国固定资产投资缩减，使得原油供大于求的担忧加大。

美国得克萨斯原油价格在两周以前反弹冲破50美元后则再次出现下行，其价格有望继续下探43美元支持位置。目前来看，43美元仍然是较强的支持位置。原油价格可能进入一个中长期低位区间整理走势。从供求角度分析，消费大国中国即将进入第13个 5年计划，进一步的金融市场自由度的放开将引导中国向消费型经济转型。消费引导性经济使得对于能源型产品进口需求量不会强于过去，这意味着全球消费水平将难以突破之前的水平；从生产角度分析，低油价与低需求必然导致部分生产成本高的产油商减产以至停产。据美国能源信息部门分析，美国能源信息管理部门也称美国原油产量将由平均920万桶/日减至890万桶/日。减产有可能带来油价再次反弹，则欧派克国家也可能在占领市场以后随后减产以提升油价。但美联储加息的预期还是有可能给油价带来下行压力。供求关系的调节可能会将是一个中长期过程。

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